The first thing to say is that political polls don’t ALWAYS get it wrong. We tend to remember the times they get it wrong because no-one talks about the times when they get it right.
If we look at the last 4 general elections in the UK and the EU Referendum, this is how the polls compared to the actual results.
In the 2015 UK general election predictions were for a hung parliament but Conservative had a 12 seat majority.
In the EU Referendum in 2016, predications were always saying it would be a close call with a remain win, and we all know how that one ended.
In the 2017 UK general election predictions were correct, predicted a Conservative majority although they did underestimate the number of Labour seats which would be won, and overestimated those won by UKIP.
In 2019 the polls got it pretty much spot on with the predictions of the share of votes for all major parties.
In 2024 the polls predictions were right again, predicting a Labour win. But it wasn’t the 18%/20% lead that many polls had predicted.
So that’s 1 spot on, 2 right but with overstated opposition seats and 2 wrong.
How can this happen when there is so much time, money and effort put into the polling process?
Briefly, here are a few reasons why the poll results don’t always match the actual result on the night.
- A political poll needs to represent the whole population, from the 18-year-olds glued to their phones in Starbucks through to the 82-year-olds watching Coronation Street at home. Should you survey them by phone, by post, by email, or by knocking on their front door? Choose the wrong method and you will miss out a whole chunk of the population.
- Pollsters ask people about their future behaviour. But those asked might not yet have decided, or they might change their mind from Party A to Party B in between telling the pollster of their intentions and actually voting.
- People don’t like being asked about their political leanings. Some feel it’s too personal a question, so they might say they’re undecided when they’re actually voting for Party A. Some might lie outright, saying they’re voting for Party A when they’re really going to vote for Party B.
- It’s impossible to predict how many people will go out to vote. In some areas there might be a history of a 50% turnout, yet on voting day only 25% actually vote. However, all the predictions will have been based on 50% voting.
- There will always be a margin of error: if Party A has a 53% share, and Party B has 47%, with a margin of error of 5%, then Party A could receive anything between 48% and 58% of the vote. And Party B could receive anything between 42% and 52% of the vote.
- Who commissioned the poll? Do they have a vested interest in reporting a particular victory?
I’d like to recommend a useful booklet, What are Opinion Polls? which was put together by our industry body, the Market Research Society
It explains how to use poll data, looking at areas such as:
- whether the sample is representative
- whether the findings are statistically significant, and
- whether it’s clear who conducted the research.
If you want a fix of election stats for UK General Election 2024 then this link is for you… 2024 election results
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